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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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let's look at them first. >> obama, obama, obama! >> oh, yeah. >> obama, obama, obama, obama. >> whether mitt romney and bain closed the plant, i lost my health care, and my family lost their health care. a short time after that my wife became ill. that's when they found the cancer, and by then it was stage four. there was nothing they could do for her. and she passed away in 22 days. i do not think mitt romney realizes what he's done to anyone. i do not think mitt romney is concerned. >> so you made reference to that obama one, a pro-obama one at the end there. my question about an ad like that and it's similar to a jeep one. he's taken a lot of blow back in the free press for that free ad and it's inaccurate. the pro-obama one was so inflammatory about causing his wife's death. i remember it being -- a considerable amount of blow-back to that one too. is that a risk with ads like this that it stirs up a lot of resentment through the press and say, it's not fair? >> i think so. a the lot of people don't realize that those super-pac
let's look at them first. >> obama, obama, obama! >> oh, yeah. >> obama, obama, obama, obama. >> whether mitt romney and bain closed the plant, i lost my health care, and my family lost their health care. a short time after that my wife became ill. that's when they found the cancer, and by then it was stage four. there was nothing they could do for her. and she passed away in 22 days. i do not think mitt romney realizes what he's done to anyone. i do not think mitt...
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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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obama is likability. if he is seen attacking people with zingers, which are completely unprofessional, completely unpresidential, i mean, this sort of street fight combative thing, that's not where he wants to be. i was talking to martin bashir before the show. he doesn't want to do that, and his entire life is wrapped around that, about not being combative in that way. he doesn't want to do that. that's his entire life wrapped around that. i mean, i also saw, you know, a guy who is leading. the likability is more important than winning this debate. i know i'm winning this thing. it's this dynamic we've seen a lot in las vegas or perhaps atlantic city when we get a champion and challenger. the challenger has nothing to lose and goes nuts and flings punches everywhere. what does he have to lose? i don't need to mix it up with you. i'm going it to win on points and layback. sometimes that strategy wins and sometimes it doesn't. >> it's always frustrating if you're a fan to watch it fully. >> it's bizarre. >
obama is likability. if he is seen attacking people with zingers, which are completely unprofessional, completely unpresidential, i mean, this sort of street fight combative thing, that's not where he wants to be. i was talking to martin bashir before the show. he doesn't want to do that, and his entire life is wrapped around that, about not being combative in that way. he doesn't want to do that. that's his entire life wrapped around that. i mean, i also saw, you know, a guy who is leading....
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Oct 10, 2012
10/12
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obama's the deep thinker, the weary warrior. you have the sense in the first debate he didn't want to be there and shouldn't have to go through this. joe biden, on the other hand, i think he loves and embraces the political combat. i think he enjoys it and makes a big difference when you feel like the person on the stage is having fun. >> yeah. >> that makes a huge difference. and i do think he has a natural instinct to go for the attacks to be able to do it in a jovial way that doesn't come across as cutting and a challenge because they're seated at a table like this. >> one quick correction. obama said was that biden was a very good middle school debater. i just want to make sure -- >> entirely different people, you'd have that between biden and ryan, there's an age difference, a regional difference, a cultural difference between them and the men they are. maybe the experience gap is gigantic. and i'm just going to be watching to see what ryan does. how do you explain your budget and how you will pay for that? romney budget. h
obama's the deep thinker, the weary warrior. you have the sense in the first debate he didn't want to be there and shouldn't have to go through this. joe biden, on the other hand, i think he loves and embraces the political combat. i think he enjoys it and makes a big difference when you feel like the person on the stage is having fun. >> yeah. >> that makes a huge difference. and i do think he has a natural instinct to go for the attacks to be able to do it in a jovial way that...
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Oct 24, 2012
10/12
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this is from an article of obama saying he doesn't give a whit about national polling in which obama's numbers are dragged down by horrific per forms in the deep south and talking about battleground states and what belcher talked about with me is, obviously, you know, the south is obama's worst region and abc poll has him up and down 16 in the south and what we're talking about is that obama's really bad, horrific polling in the south is those large margins are not equivalent to the ability of the south to control or impact the electoral college. so, what do you think about that? >> well, it's entirely possible that on election day we wake up and see the numbers and the south cost obama the popular vote but the data i have says that the south isn't the big driver. look at the number you gave me. it says that romney up 16 points in the south. last time according to the exit polls it was 9-point race in the south and that means that romney gained 7 points in the south compared to mccain and happens to be the same amount that the national polls moved, 7 points. same amount as in some less
this is from an article of obama saying he doesn't give a whit about national polling in which obama's numbers are dragged down by horrific per forms in the deep south and talking about battleground states and what belcher talked about with me is, obviously, you know, the south is obama's worst region and abc poll has him up and down 16 in the south and what we're talking about is that obama's really bad, horrific polling in the south is those large margins are not equivalent to the ability of...
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Jul 12, 2012
07/12
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obama's dishonest campaign. another reason america has lost confidence in barack obama. >> now in a bit of incredibly inconvenient truth for mitt romney, new reports suggest he has been less than truthful about when he left bain capital. he has claimed he broke from bain in february 1999 to defend himself from charges he laid off workers and outsourced jobs overseas, but new reports are making waves on a "boston globe" piece today, finding that romney was listed as bain's sole stockholder, chairman of the board, ceo and president. on sec filings into 2002. the romney campaign has responded in a statement, quote, the article is not accurate. as bain has said, as governor romney has said and had been confirmed by independent fact checkers multiple time, bain left in february of 1999 to run the limb p picks and had input on magt of companies after that point. but hang on. what was it romney said yesterday about responding in politics? >> i respond to the attacks that come, they say in politics, if you're responding
obama's dishonest campaign. another reason america has lost confidence in barack obama. >> now in a bit of incredibly inconvenient truth for mitt romney, new reports suggest he has been less than truthful about when he left bain capital. he has claimed he broke from bain in february 1999 to defend himself from charges he laid off workers and outsourced jobs overseas, but new reports are making waves on a "boston globe" piece today, finding that romney was listed as bain's sole...
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Oct 3, 2012
10/12
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the heart of romney's argument against obama is obama hasn't helped the economy. ohio is a state it is doing better than the national of a range the auto bailout has a practical effect on people's lives, know people working in auto plant, suppliers of auto plant and the natural gas boom, a little beneath the radar has helped the unemployment rate in ohio. that is has resulted in obama dog better nationally better than nationalism people talking about the possibility romney could pull out of ohio and still win. i think that's very difficult to envision. if romney loses ohio, in particular if ohio is long gone, obama is going to win you can the votes aren't there else where to make up for the loss of those 18 electoral votes. >> nate, i want to talk about you, talk about you for a second? >> if you really want. >> you are the political blogging star of 2012. you are the hot new guy that all the smart kids want to read and talk about and listen to. how does that feel to be the cool new guy on the block? >> you know, i don't think i'm that cool, actually. for one, i'm
the heart of romney's argument against obama is obama hasn't helped the economy. ohio is a state it is doing better than the national of a range the auto bailout has a practical effect on people's lives, know people working in auto plant, suppliers of auto plant and the natural gas boom, a little beneath the radar has helped the unemployment rate in ohio. that is has resulted in obama dog better nationally better than nationalism people talking about the possibility romney could pull out of...
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Jul 12, 2012
07/12
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how is obama doing this well? you know typically we don't re-elect president when is we're above 8% unemployment and i'll throw some stats up on the screen. 8.2% unemployment. real unemployment is 14.4. one sixth of the population is on food stamps. 61% of young adults know someone who has had to move back in with their parents. and american family net worth is down 40% since 2007. those are bad numbers. so tell me, i'll ask it again. how is obama doing this well? >> well, the first thing is there's evidence already polling is showing that the obama attack machine is working. and that some of these attacks, particularly on romney's business experience, what he did at bain is showing in focus groups and some of these swing states is sticking with people, particularly in northern virginia. did this guy really outsource jobs? did he create jobs or outsource them? it's raising the question mark to someone they are not very familiar with yet already. remember a lot of voters, they are not like us, they are just tuning
how is obama doing this well? you know typically we don't re-elect president when is we're above 8% unemployment and i'll throw some stats up on the screen. 8.2% unemployment. real unemployment is 14.4. one sixth of the population is on food stamps. 61% of young adults know someone who has had to move back in with their parents. and american family net worth is down 40% since 2007. those are bad numbers. so tell me, i'll ask it again. how is obama doing this well? >> well, the first thing...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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obama's lead is massive. obama built the largest grassroots organization that politics saw in '08 and after he won he continued to build it. this can make a difference of two points and in a close race like this it can make all the difference in '08. it gave obama some already. that's not the situation in this case. people that have been to the ground offices say the obama offices are all about obamament the romney offices are rnc offices and not always all about romney. that leads a conservative like joe scarborough to worry about what's happening that the obama offices are building this unparalleled turnout machine and the great irony that scarborough writes for the romney camp is their candidate drirch by data and numbers his entire life is relying on the most unpredi unpredictable force of all, human emotion, to pull him over the top. i don't understand why romney and the gop have allowed this to happen? >> if it were just about having offices, obama would be in a clear lead in states like florida he's no
obama's lead is massive. obama built the largest grassroots organization that politics saw in '08 and after he won he continued to build it. this can make a difference of two points and in a close race like this it can make all the difference in '08. it gave obama some already. that's not the situation in this case. people that have been to the ground offices say the obama offices are all about obamament the romney offices are rnc offices and not always all about romney. that leads a...
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Oct 19, 2012
10/12
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just like barack obama, and you've heard president obama say it. he said, we're going to have to do something about entitlements and spending. he has a plan -- i give president obama credit. he has a plan to do two and a half times spending cuts for one part revenue enhancements, and that's a formula, i think, that can turn the debt and deficit problems around. i think governor romney has to do that. he has to -- i think the base will hate to hear this, but he has to govern more like a moderate. whatever happens, democrats will have more than 41 votes in the senate. he has to get democrats to cooperate to make anything work, and we're not going to solve the debt and deficit problem. there isn't an economist out there who thinks you can solve it without increasing revenue. >> governor, i think all election cycle we try to figure out are mitt romney's core values and what makes him tick and how is he all over the map? i think the president nailed it today. let's take a listen. >> i mean, he's changing up so much and backtracking and side-stepping. we
just like barack obama, and you've heard president obama say it. he said, we're going to have to do something about entitlements and spending. he has a plan -- i give president obama credit. he has a plan to do two and a half times spending cuts for one part revenue enhancements, and that's a formula, i think, that can turn the debt and deficit problems around. i think governor romney has to do that. he has to -- i think the base will hate to hear this, but he has to govern more like a...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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in '08 obama won by 7 points. after a close election, poll trutherism could morph into election trutherism and in an attempt to secede where 49% of the country acts on the feeling they don't need to respect the president. right now the american family doesn't know how to agree to disagree. we are the divided states of america. art of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. [ male announcer ] you start your day... love you, too. ...thinking about what's important to you -- your family... ...the mortgage... the kids' college tuition. [ cellphone ringing ] but life insurance? [ horn honking ] life is unpredictable. that's why at fidelity life we want you to think about term life insurance -- taking care of your family's future expenses if something happens to you. it's easy. we get to know you and your needs, then give you our best quote and our competitors'.
in '08 obama won by 7 points. after a close election, poll trutherism could morph into election trutherism and in an attempt to secede where 49% of the country acts on the feeling they don't need to respect the president. right now the american family doesn't know how to agree to disagree. we are the divided states of america. art of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ]...
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Sep 18, 2012
09/12
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his own voting bloc. >> obama is saying you shouldn't be left out in the cold. the political danger of romney is it sounds like you're out in the cold, and i don't care. >> that's not what he said. >> there's a difference considering yourself a victim and believe the government can be beneficial and do good things in the society. they're a difference there between thinking that the government can do good or -- >> obama is predicating his entire game of victim -- >> on the premise that government can do good for society. >> that you need government to day care of you. that's his campaign message. i'm not inventing this. obama is tells you you need government to take care of you. >> that's not what he's telling you. >> boris, thanks for joining us. >>> another deadly afak in afghanistan triggers ways in how america trains afghan troops. what it means for getting u.s. troops out. that's straight ahead. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso. i just finished a bowl of your new light chicken pot pie soup and it's so rich and creamy... is it really 100 calories? let me put y
his own voting bloc. >> obama is saying you shouldn't be left out in the cold. the political danger of romney is it sounds like you're out in the cold, and i don't care. >> that's not what he said. >> there's a difference considering yourself a victim and believe the government can be beneficial and do good things in the society. they're a difference there between thinking that the government can do good or -- >> obama is predicating his entire game of victim -- >>...
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Nov 15, 2012
11/12
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that obama had robbed from them. it was a phantom issue. what he's saying is invented, but he was promising free stuff. let's not forget that. the bigger point is this philosophy, this 47% don't pay federal income taxes and we should be offended by that, this appoint that infected the party in the obama era. because the tea party and because the base and conservative sort of opinion shapers like hannity and limbaugh was so powerful, no leaders in the party were willing to stand up. romney says this yesterday, and we are hearing from bobby jindal, for instance, last night saying this is trash. stay away from it. kelly ayotte said the same thing today. >> scott walker. >> some republicans are liberated by this defeat now. it's interesting to see how it broadens now. >> some are liberated by it, but some are focused on the free stuff need. it's disgusting and offensive, and it's why they use the word "pandering" when we talk about the groups that get entitlements rather than how liberals look at it in terms of protectin
that obama had robbed from them. it was a phantom issue. what he's saying is invented, but he was promising free stuff. let's not forget that. the bigger point is this philosophy, this 47% don't pay federal income taxes and we should be offended by that, this appoint that infected the party in the obama era. because the tea party and because the base and conservative sort of opinion shapers like hannity and limbaugh was so powerful, no leaders in the party were willing to stand up. romney says...
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Oct 15, 2012
10/12
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that's the biggest danger for obama. the pressure is really on him here, and he needs to thread the needle and be forceful without being overbearing, he needs to appear to be presidential while also getting in the gutter and mixing up with romney. it's a very difficult task, but, of course, it's one he created for himself a week ago. >> well, we've all been a little dismissive of polls today, but i'll ask you about another one, dana. the politico/george washington battleground role has romney improving his likability since the denver debate. going into the denver debate his favorables were 47% 47% and now it's 51 to 44. do you think president obama was really sort of trying to protect his likability in that last debate, and that's why you saw him playing things a little close to the vest, not being too emotional, not being aggressive, and do you think he's going to work to fix that to counterbalance that tomorrow? >> i think obama was getting carried away with the rough weeks that romney had. i said, i'm going to be pres
that's the biggest danger for obama. the pressure is really on him here, and he needs to thread the needle and be forceful without being overbearing, he needs to appear to be presidential while also getting in the gutter and mixing up with romney. it's a very difficult task, but, of course, it's one he created for himself a week ago. >> well, we've all been a little dismissive of polls today, but i'll ask you about another one, dana. the politico/george washington battleground role has...
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Sep 10, 2012
09/12
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obama remains favored to win despite the facts. some say race cost obama 3 to 5 points in '08 and bad economic numbers and gop obstruction impeding progress. so obama arrived on the national scene as an extraordinary politician and now seems a much more ordinary politician and still victory is very much within reach. i think a more ordinary plak politician succeeding in this climate signals progress even more than the success of one who seemed as if he could walk on water. >> i think that's really true and i think that's true also about the idea of the american dream. to me the american dream isn't one or two exceptional people being able to pull themselves up from tough circumstances. it's your average person of average intelligence who works hard and is willing to take those steps being able to pull themselves up. i think your point there is really apt. the other thing i would point out about the romney campaign is not only are they using the welfare attacks as welfare attacks, they're also trying to paint the president's health
obama remains favored to win despite the facts. some say race cost obama 3 to 5 points in '08 and bad economic numbers and gop obstruction impeding progress. so obama arrived on the national scene as an extraordinary politician and now seems a much more ordinary politician and still victory is very much within reach. i think a more ordinary plak politician succeeding in this climate signals progress even more than the success of one who seemed as if he could walk on water. >> i think...
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Oct 23, 2012
10/12
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obama did sign it into law. it very well could happen, and it seems as though obama might have just taken his biggest bargaining chip off the table. the "wall street journal" and politico called it a huge gaffe today. i liked john mccain's response. >> i was astonished and almost fell out of my chair when he said don't worry, sequestration won't happen. we begged the president to come and sit down to avoid what his own secretary of defense has said would be a devastating blow to our national security. he said, don't worry. sequestration won't happen. he's not a dictator yet. >> he's not a dictator yet. it was a very bizarre moment, and again, romney said nothing. >> do we have an option of making his the dictator? is that what we're learning? >> you would if you could. i know it. i know it. >> who are the candidates? what are they for? be specific. what are their names? we'll clue krystal in, and we'll talk about all the foreign language stuff last night with lieutenant colonel and they'll tell us which candidat
obama did sign it into law. it very well could happen, and it seems as though obama might have just taken his biggest bargaining chip off the table. the "wall street journal" and politico called it a huge gaffe today. i liked john mccain's response. >> i was astonished and almost fell out of my chair when he said don't worry, sequestration won't happen. we begged the president to come and sit down to avoid what his own secretary of defense has said would be a devastating blow to...
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Dec 19, 2012
12/12
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but obama stood his ground. he even took his case back to the public with a series of campaign-style stops the past few weeks. and guess what. it's kind of worked. republicans started speaking up not in droves but in numbers not seen in decades to say yeah, the president has the leverage here. we're going to have to give in. that applies to john boehner to. his latest offer is on income over $1 million. obama now says he'll settle for $400,000. so if there's a deal, it's going to be somewhere between those numbers. no matter where it is, it will signal the end of 22 years of total and complete refusal
but obama stood his ground. he even took his case back to the public with a series of campaign-style stops the past few weeks. and guess what. it's kind of worked. republicans started speaking up not in droves but in numbers not seen in decades to say yeah, the president has the leverage here. we're going to have to give in. that applies to john boehner to. his latest offer is on income over $1 million. obama now says he'll settle for $400,000. so if there's a deal, it's going to be somewhere...
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Oct 18, 2012
10/12
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the boy looks and says that's barack obama, and they say what does barack obama do? and he thinks for a second and says, he approves this message. funny. romney's favorite joke, i came into a large room full of republicans in massachusetts and i turned to my wife and said, ann, in your wildest dreams, did you see me running for political office? she turned back to me and said, mitt, you weren't in my wildest dreams. >> ouch! >> pretty good. you know, i think it's kind of silly when you think of stupid human tricks, i think ever these as stupid presidential tricks. the paces we put our candidates through, answering these dumb questions, i think back to john king on cnn at the primary debate where he's asking a this or that like leno or conan, elvis or johnny cash, the answer to that one is yes. blackberry or iphone. absolutely inane. i know you had a moment you hated. >> yeah. well, the boxers or briefs moments. >> from '92. >> you have the presidential jokes here. biden has this great routine where he pretends to be a weather guy and starts talking about tropical sto
the boy looks and says that's barack obama, and they say what does barack obama do? and he thinks for a second and says, he approves this message. funny. romney's favorite joke, i came into a large room full of republicans in massachusetts and i turned to my wife and said, ann, in your wildest dreams, did you see me running for political office? she turned back to me and said, mitt, you weren't in my wildest dreams. >> ouch! >> pretty good. you know, i think it's kind of silly when...
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Sep 5, 2012
09/12
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she loses to barack obama. her front-runnerhood heading into 2008 has nothing on her front-runnerhood heading into 2016. they are image and stature dwarfs what she brought in 2008. the big knock on her head in 2008, was democrats said she may be too polarizing. that concern has completely gone away because the republicans laid down for her. if she runs in 2016, i don't know if deval or anybody else has a chance. if she doesn't run, this thing opens up quickly. biden as sort of a nominal front-runner with kerns about his age and then you get down to andrew cuomo and deval patrick at that point is right up there in that mix. i don't know exactly what he's looking at that. i looked at that speech last night and said we have not heard the last of this guy. >> steve, is cory booker on that list? >> he may have trouble in 2014 in the city of newark or running for senate against frank lautenberg. i'm not going to start talking about 2016 till he gets out of new jersey. >> melinda, thanks for joining us. we appreciate
she loses to barack obama. her front-runnerhood heading into 2008 has nothing on her front-runnerhood heading into 2016. they are image and stature dwarfs what she brought in 2008. the big knock on her head in 2008, was democrats said she may be too polarizing. that concern has completely gone away because the republicans laid down for her. if she runs in 2016, i don't know if deval or anybody else has a chance. if she doesn't run, this thing opens up quickly. biden as sort of a nominal...
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Dec 18, 2012
12/12
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in general obama has the upper hand. i can understand why the left might be growing increasingly frustrated. we're talking about what boehner can sell to his caucus. i do think liberals hated that medicare retirement age change. change cpi might be more palatable. a lot of people don't completely understand what it means and it might be an easy thing to sell. >> let's talk about thea mt because no one else is. this is a tax so onerous and poorly designed that congress has to patch it every year to avoid bankrupting the middle class. i really like tony's description in forbes, step one, compute your regular tax liability. step two, compute your alternative minute tax liability. step three, take a generous pull of scotch and curse loudly. step four, pay the higher of step one and two. what is going to happen with the amt? >> the amt is really important. it might be one of the most important issues that people don't really dig into. we don't talk about it a lot in this conversation, but it does really hit home. people do ge
in general obama has the upper hand. i can understand why the left might be growing increasingly frustrated. we're talking about what boehner can sell to his caucus. i do think liberals hated that medicare retirement age change. change cpi might be more palatable. a lot of people don't completely understand what it means and it might be an easy thing to sell. >> let's talk about thea mt because no one else is. this is a tax so onerous and poorly designed that congress has to patch it...
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Oct 1, 2012
10/12
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whatever obama's posture is he tries to maneuver into a position to say obama is weak, obama is jimmy carter about because when you're the republican it's 1979 the democratic president is always jimmy carter. the perfect example how he handled libya. when the libya thing started a year and a half ago, the first response from mitt romney, when obama agreed to the mission, the first response from mitt romney was, too late, and this isn't enough. he criticized him. weaknessp. he wouldn't address it. ducking reporters. then he starts warning couple months later, this mission, this is too broad. now mission creep. we're losing sight of what we need to be doing. he even starts suggesting do we even know if it's a good idea to be taking gadhafi out. then gadhafi is out. gadhafi's gone. then romney says you know what, the world celebrates the ouster. he's just constantly changing and constantly shifting and responding to where obama is. trying to create this character of obama as the weak jimmy carter guy. i think at the end -- you just don't have anything to say. there's a great debate we co
whatever obama's posture is he tries to maneuver into a position to say obama is weak, obama is jimmy carter about because when you're the republican it's 1979 the democratic president is always jimmy carter. the perfect example how he handled libya. when the libya thing started a year and a half ago, the first response from mitt romney, when obama agreed to the mission, the first response from mitt romney was, too late, and this isn't enough. he criticized him. weaknessp. he wouldn't address...
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Sep 7, 2012
09/12
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he teed it up for barack obama, and barack obama whiffed. when it comes to the independent swing voters. i think it was totally about exciting the base, but i don't understand why he couldn't do both. excite the base and talk about specific ways we're going to get out of this economic hole. bill clinton did that, i thought, very successfully. >> yeah. linda, i actually don't agree with that framing. i think it was much more broadly pitched, but even if it was pitched to the base. nate silver was writing that 35% of voters nationwide identified as democrats and 30% at republicans. democrats have an advantage there to energize their people. is it a smart strategy for democrats to play to energize their base? >> they have to do that. there's no doubt about it. democrats can be better at voter turnout efforts. they will have to pour a lot of energy into that to excite young voters, to excite the same constituencies that obama got in 2008. this is going to be such a close election. the latest columbus dispatch poll about ohio, which as we talk ab
he teed it up for barack obama, and barack obama whiffed. when it comes to the independent swing voters. i think it was totally about exciting the base, but i don't understand why he couldn't do both. excite the base and talk about specific ways we're going to get out of this economic hole. bill clinton did that, i thought, very successfully. >> yeah. linda, i actually don't agree with that framing. i think it was much more broadly pitched, but even if it was pitched to the base. nate...
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Nov 3, 2012
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obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're looking at the key battleground states the president has a lead in most them. isn't it possible the president will win the electoral college in a landslide. >> i don't think it would constitute a landslide. but it's easy to see how grab gets to 303 or 332. by bush-gore standards it's a landslide. pretty middle of the road. >> in speaking of that you have reviewed all of our map. we have made your own electoral college picks and you chose a favorite using your wizardry. >> yeah. i thought that your map actually was the best. >> hey.
obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're...
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Oct 17, 2012
10/12
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if so, maybe obama will rebound. if it's because they thought romney was this terrible, evil, incapable plutocrat then maybe the better debate performance changed their minds. >> let me ask you about that. can you give us a sense that particular group, that group that can come back to obama, how's big's the group and what do we know about them? >> i think if you squint at the numbers they look like they're women, they look like they're young, they're married, they look like they're moderate. i don't think it's a large segment of the electorate. maybe two points. 49 to 47. it appear that is they still approve of his performance and it appears that they have a better impression of romney so it's possible to see how they could go both ways and depending on what happens in the polls after the debate we might learn about which two possibilities explains the movement. >> nate, before we get started, i wanted to say we tease because we love. you're the fifth cyclist and why we give it to you a little bit. in terms of what w
if so, maybe obama will rebound. if it's because they thought romney was this terrible, evil, incapable plutocrat then maybe the better debate performance changed their minds. >> let me ask you about that. can you give us a sense that particular group, that group that can come back to obama, how's big's the group and what do we know about them? >> i think if you squint at the numbers they look like they're women, they look like they're young, they're married, they look like they're...
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Oct 8, 2012
10/12
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when you see obama gaining now, that means that obama's interviews yesterday were even better than those from seven days ago, conducted before the debate. similarly when you look at the three-day approval number and you see that it's gone up, that means that obama's interviews yesterday were much better than the ones conducted three days ago, which was immediately after the debate. i think what the gallup numbers tell us is romney had a really good couple of days after the debate, but since then their numbers show obama doing better. it's too early to tell whether that's noise or not but consistent with data we see. it's consistent with the poll that shows romney doing well over a long early time period that includes the days after the debate went well. it's consistent with state numbers that show bahama doing pretty well in the last two days but much worse on friday and saturday. it's also consistent with rasmussen which shows obama going back to predebate levels. so i think that the way you can synthesize all this is romney had a great couple of days after the debates, but now it's a l
when you see obama gaining now, that means that obama's interviews yesterday were even better than those from seven days ago, conducted before the debate. similarly when you look at the three-day approval number and you see that it's gone up, that means that obama's interviews yesterday were much better than the ones conducted three days ago, which was immediately after the debate. i think what the gallup numbers tell us is romney had a really good couple of days after the debate, but since...
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Sep 3, 2012
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obama. the good democratic president against whom they've been comparing obama the last few years. they've helped bill clinton attain new heights in popularity. the suspense surrounding that is bill clinton has not cleared his speech with anybody in the obama campaign. that immediately conjures thoughts of clint eastwood and the empty chair, but i would say clinton in 2008 did not clear his speech then. he had a very bad experience going way back to the start of his career in 1998 where he thought the campaign handlers had too much input in his speech and it was a disaster. i think that's what's involved there. quickly, the other element of suspense here involves, sort of like last week, the weather. the obama is planning to deliver his speech thursday night in the football stadium not far from here. they want the 70,000 cheering fans, but there's talk of rain, maybe a lot, we don't know yet. there's the question will they have it outside if there's rain, then is there empty seats and so tha
obama. the good democratic president against whom they've been comparing obama the last few years. they've helped bill clinton attain new heights in popularity. the suspense surrounding that is bill clinton has not cleared his speech with anybody in the obama campaign. that immediately conjures thoughts of clint eastwood and the empty chair, but i would say clinton in 2008 did not clear his speech then. he had a very bad experience going way back to the start of his career in 1998 where he...
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Oct 11, 2012
10/12
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nerds. >> so when you see obama gaining in today's gallup tracking polls that means obama's interviews were better. >> he fwrent three ahead to five ahead in their track today. >> this next round of polls from nbc marist and other polls show the swing states tied then democrats will be appropriate for them to panic. >> nobody understands these things but you guys. >> steve, you are one of the superstar nerds. i love that. >> it's a compliment. >> you guys are so good with numbers but none of you can tie a tie. what's up with that? >> let me say this. when you're sitting home at 11:30 and you start getting texts and tweets and said john stewart mentioned you in a show. >> you get nervous. >> it could have been a lot worse than that. >> imagine the feeling when you get texts and tweets saying you're on "saturday night live." >> i'm with you. it could have been a lot worse. huge sigh of relief. >> i'm feeling a little left out, tuore. >> you're in esquire. you're a woman we love in esqui esquire. what are you talking about? >> now i'm blushing. >> all of those gentlemen have been on "the
nerds. >> so when you see obama gaining in today's gallup tracking polls that means obama's interviews were better. >> he fwrent three ahead to five ahead in their track today. >> this next round of polls from nbc marist and other polls show the swing states tied then democrats will be appropriate for them to panic. >> nobody understands these things but you guys. >> steve, you are one of the superstar nerds. i love that. >> it's a compliment. >> you...
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Aug 21, 2012
08/12
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obama versus romney. one long time obama adviser told there rush obama has a level of disdain for romney he never had for mccain who obama respected for an honorable man and war hero. that doesn't hold for romney. he was no goddamned war hero. does the president's disdain for romney make it into a character attack and small ball as opposed to the big-mined campaign in '08 which the subtext we respect senator mccain. >> before we start, can i get that in the form of the power point presentation? >> done. >> particularly the cutter/ax thing. was there any blood on their faces? i think like the background, i mean, let's face it, none of the republicans who went against mitt romney in 2008 left loving him all that much to begin with, rudy giuliani, chief among them. he really has a way of alienating people he goes up against. but you knowing obama has more serious reasons not to like romney. first he had to sit by for six months beating around the head and neck by the other candidates, obama a competitive dem
obama versus romney. one long time obama adviser told there rush obama has a level of disdain for romney he never had for mccain who obama respected for an honorable man and war hero. that doesn't hold for romney. he was no goddamned war hero. does the president's disdain for romney make it into a character attack and small ball as opposed to the big-mined campaign in '08 which the subtext we respect senator mccain. >> before we start, can i get that in the form of the power point...
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Oct 26, 2012
10/12
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coming down on obama side would be big news for another reason. and i think bloomberg because he's a national figure. i think would have a pretty good endorsement. but i don't think we're going to get either of those. >> don't think that the national jewish community would go oh, lieberman said that so let's roll with him. >> there's a big red line between obama and romney on israel. >> i mean for a generation now, this is the year the jewish vote turns on the democrats. >> joe lieberman can't endorse there's not a jewish guy in the race. >> colin powell's endorsement has gotten a lot of attention. many other endorsements fly under the radar. george bush i'm for mitt romney. this was not captured on camera. too bad. others maybe getting a little too much attention the red carpet roll out for mitt romney in february. some do matter those of local newspapers in battleground states there's one that's yet to weigh in that's the des moines register. talk about all the different paths and iowa is a swing state. the key to "the des moines register" endor
coming down on obama side would be big news for another reason. and i think bloomberg because he's a national figure. i think would have a pretty good endorsement. but i don't think we're going to get either of those. >> don't think that the national jewish community would go oh, lieberman said that so let's roll with him. >> there's a big red line between obama and romney on israel. >> i mean for a generation now, this is the year the jewish vote turns on the democrats....
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Sep 12, 2012
09/12
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then candidate obama. who are you going to be ready to take that call at 3:00 a.m.? are you going to be ready and mature and able to handle those decisions and in that moment he proved he was the guy to take that call at 3:00 a.m. i think there's similar questions right now about mitt romney, particularly on foreign policy. are you really ready to be the face of the united states on the national stage? and this was both an opportunity and a perilous moment for the romney campaign and i think they ended up creating a massive problem for them whereas if they had followed the strategy you outlined it could have been an opportunity for them. >> seems the afghanistan mistake or mission or whatever you want to call it is in his house. talking trash on the court, you can't make that three pointer and trying to make it and extra tense and pushing. he's, yeah, yipping, pushing. but this is part of post truth campaigning which is what we're in this season. accusing obama of doing things that he's actually not doing
then candidate obama. who are you going to be ready to take that call at 3:00 a.m.? are you going to be ready and mature and able to handle those decisions and in that moment he proved he was the guy to take that call at 3:00 a.m. i think there's similar questions right now about mitt romney, particularly on foreign policy. are you really ready to be the face of the united states on the national stage? and this was both an opportunity and a perilous moment for the romney campaign and i think...
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Sep 6, 2012
09/12
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call obama. explain it? call clinton." what do you think of how he delivered that message last night? >> it is interesting that the role of the vice president is always on the night of to do a step-by-step takedown of the nominee from the other party. as you said, bill clinton did that over the course of 48 minutes last night. sort of stole the role of joe biden. it will be interesting to see what he does. there has been a thread throughout this, though. michelle obama came out the first night and talked about why she and her husband have lived the american dream. we are you. we don't just feel you. we are you. bill clinton talked about why the other side cannot provide the american dream. now i think president obama will come out tonight and explain why he's the better man to get people to that dream. >> luke, i thought it was interesting last night. the number one word i heard, after the word "i," was bill clinton constantly saying "cooperation." it's a powerful argument because he's talking about an america where we all
call obama. explain it? call clinton." what do you think of how he delivered that message last night? >> it is interesting that the role of the vice president is always on the night of to do a step-by-step takedown of the nominee from the other party. as you said, bill clinton did that over the course of 48 minutes last night. sort of stole the role of joe biden. it will be interesting to see what he does. there has been a thread throughout this, though. michelle obama came out the...
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Oct 25, 2012
10/12
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. >> why do you think barack obama should win? >> because he takes good care of us. >> and what do you think about mitt romney? >> mitt romney, well, i don't know. >> about a year ago by then 3-year-old and i sat down to have dinner. we chatted about baby animals, the fresh beat band, the usual. when conversation petered down, ella said, mama, let's talk about something else. okay, babe, what would you like to talk about? she quickly replied mitt romney and so it began. started with basic questions about who the president is, what do they do? why can't mitt romney and barack obama both be president? she still sees this as a reasonable possibility. why can't they both be president? >> yeah, they could be half president. >> see, i haven't turned her into a hardened partisan just yet. >> there's time. >> then i had to explain to ella how voting works. she was outraged, outraged when i told her kids aren't allowed to vote. she was ready to take to the streets, but it was bedtime so that had to wait. i have had to justify my own voting
. >> why do you think barack obama should win? >> because he takes good care of us. >> and what do you think about mitt romney? >> mitt romney, well, i don't know. >> about a year ago by then 3-year-old and i sat down to have dinner. we chatted about baby animals, the fresh beat band, the usual. when conversation petered down, ella said, mama, let's talk about something else. okay, babe, what would you like to talk about? she quickly replied mitt romney and so it...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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give obama ohio and new hampshire. i think the point i want to make about this map is a broader one and it's a criticism and an expression of bafflement about the romney campaign strategy. if you look at that map, to win to get to 270, they have to win virginia, florida, north carolina. got to win colorado. putting that together, pick off ohio or some combination of wisconsin and plus new hampshire, iowa, nevada. a combination there and the polls out of ohio and wisconsin, not looking good for romney. to me the issue is this. there are states on the map that could have been competitive. oregon, michigan, minnesota, pennsylvania and even maybe where obama had big margins in 2008 like 15, 16-point margins but you have to go back to 2004 to see, you know, a three-point race in minnesota. a three-point race in michigan. these are states, there's a lot of flexibility in these states. if romney with all the money he had and republicans had, outside money, if they had targeted the states early with advertising and then with f
give obama ohio and new hampshire. i think the point i want to make about this map is a broader one and it's a criticism and an expression of bafflement about the romney campaign strategy. if you look at that map, to win to get to 270, they have to win virginia, florida, north carolina. got to win colorado. putting that together, pick off ohio or some combination of wisconsin and plus new hampshire, iowa, nevada. a combination there and the polls out of ohio and wisconsin, not looking good for...
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Sep 4, 2012
09/12
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family, michelle obama. on thursday night, i will offer what i believe is a better path forward. a path that will create good jobs. and strengthen our middle class. and grow our economy. and the good news is, virginia, that in just two months, you get to choose which path we take. >> our very own steve kornacki is? charlotte. steve, what's the vibe ahead of tonight's big speeches? >> i tell you just a minute ago we had one heck of a crowd behind us. some of them are still here can which is great but skies just opened and the pouring rain all of a sudden. that seems to happen a lot here in charlotte. you talked about michelle obama and we will discuss that later, i know. but i think, you know, the interesting thing to keep in mind about official obama's speech tonight and a lot of other speeches is if there is one big idea that democrats are trying to achieve here tonight, is to maximize support among what one political observer called the coalition of the ascendant. if democrats win this election, it is goin
family, michelle obama. on thursday night, i will offer what i believe is a better path forward. a path that will create good jobs. and strengthen our middle class. and grow our economy. and the good news is, virginia, that in just two months, you get to choose which path we take. >> our very own steve kornacki is? charlotte. steve, what's the vibe ahead of tonight's big speeches? >> i tell you just a minute ago we had one heck of a crowd behind us. some of them are still here can...
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Jul 11, 2012
07/12
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i'm barack obama, and i approved this message. our current dividend tax rate will expire this year, sending taxes through the roof and hindering economic recovery. the consequences? millions of americans will see their taxes on dividend income spike, slowing investment in u.s. companies and jeopardizing development in energy projects that create american jobs. ask congress to stop a dividend tax hike -- for all of us. you get a 50% annual bonus. and everyone likes 50% more cash -- well, except her. no! but, i'm about to change that. ♪ every little baby wants 50% more cash... ♪ phhht! fine, you try. [ strings breaking, wood splintering ] ha ha. [ male announcer ] the capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. ♪ what's in your wallet? ♪ what's in your...your... woman: what do you mean, homeowners insurance doesn't cover floods? [ heart rate increases ] man: a few inches of water caused all this? [ heart rate increases ] woman #2: but i don't even live near the water. what you don't know about
i'm barack obama, and i approved this message. our current dividend tax rate will expire this year, sending taxes through the roof and hindering economic recovery. the consequences? millions of americans will see their taxes on dividend income spike, slowing investment in u.s. companies and jeopardizing development in energy projects that create american jobs. ask congress to stop a dividend tax hike -- for all of us. you get a 50% annual bonus. and everyone likes 50% more cash -- well, except...
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Oct 22, 2012
10/12
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the obama administration should have known. they should have had more security there, and he's very vulnerable in that regard. whether or not it matters to voters pondering pocketbook issues remains to be seen, though. >> i'm thinking back a few weeks to the run-up to the first debate in denver. we heard a lot of voices saying, don't get too excited. debates don't matter that much in presidential elections. i took the point. we don't see them changing 20 points worth of votes or something. something very significant has happened in the weeks since then. all year from april to the end of september, barack obama led in the real clear politics polling average. we might have the graph. i'm not sure. for the first time in the entire campaign mitt romney pulled ahead in that average and kept a small, very small but a lead in that since then. i guess my question is, can we finally put an end to this idea that debates don't matter? >> we should. we should have all along, steve. my view has been if debates aren't dispositive and they're
the obama administration should have known. they should have had more security there, and he's very vulnerable in that regard. whether or not it matters to voters pondering pocketbook issues remains to be seen, though. >> i'm thinking back a few weeks to the run-up to the first debate in denver. we heard a lot of voices saying, don't get too excited. debates don't matter that much in presidential elections. i took the point. we don't see them changing 20 points worth of votes or...
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Sep 6, 2012
09/12
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they were for any time barack obama was mentioned. it was kind of one of those george orwell rallies where they put up the enemy figure and everybody is supposed to jeer. that gets the emotions of the base going in the republican party in a way that frankly mitt romney does not. now, that's a tactic. it there hatred there? i would say it's more fear than hatred. a lot of republicans an conservatives have done a good
they were for any time barack obama was mentioned. it was kind of one of those george orwell rallies where they put up the enemy figure and everybody is supposed to jeer. that gets the emotions of the base going in the republican party in a way that frankly mitt romney does not. now, that's a tactic. it there hatred there? i would say it's more fear than hatred. a lot of republicans an conservatives have done a good
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Sep 13, 2012
09/12
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barack obama's strength, i think, is that he's a leader that doesn't panic. that he's smart and in control. that he listening to people like secretary of state clinton, and that i think he's a perfect crisis leader. this plays to his strength. the american people don't want to go to war in the middle east again. they don't want a third war. they don't want -- they want us to be strong, and my constituents have said to me in the streets although with tears in their eyes and say how can this happen in benghazi when we saved all those people from being executed? it's a good, tough question. i think it's importance to emphasize it wasn't the libyan government that had anything to do with this. it may have been inspired by al qaeda or some extremist groups, and we've got to be careful about a response when we know who did it, the response should be swift and certain. we have to be careful about that response. >> governor, if we could turn to romney's political response, which i think you could classify as poor as the very best, ari berman a couple months ago point
barack obama's strength, i think, is that he's a leader that doesn't panic. that he's smart and in control. that he listening to people like secretary of state clinton, and that i think he's a perfect crisis leader. this plays to his strength. the american people don't want to go to war in the middle east again. they don't want a third war. they don't want -- they want us to be strong, and my constituents have said to me in the streets although with tears in their eyes and say how can this...